Taste Test

So we loaded in the Mountain House freeze dried food - at least the first portion.  As part of that effort, I ordered a small sampler pack and put it on the boat last week.  My thinking is that the freeze dried food can stay there and experience a fair bit of high temperatures - a sort of aging study - although I don't have an equation that one season of boat storage equals how many years of storage in my home.

But we were tired after a morning of boat work and decided to make the beef stroganoff.  

We supplemented that with some fruit we had on board and it was a fairly tasty lunch!

Could I eat this stuff daily for a month?  In an emergency situation, it's better than going hungry and the long storage life means I don't have to think about it much after laying it in.  I'll taste a few more of these before laying in the full supply (we have about 1 weeks for 2 persons currently).  Then once we have that, it will slowly get cycled through the boat for use in situations like this one.

Water addendum

I described my water solution earlier...

Since then I realized that I also have another water backup, though, it's not really a back up but more of a primary plan.  We have a reverse osmosis system under our kitchen sink.

It's a bunch of filters and a small holding tank that tap off of our cold water supply under there and lead to a separate faucet.

To me, much more likely than a water catastrophe (where all drinking water stops flowing) is a water quality issue, where we're advised that the water isn't drinkable.  The RO unit mitigates many of those types of issues and can be our backup.  Yes, technically these units don't have the industrial quality seals that make them "officially" able to purify water, there's ample evidence that we could rely on this unit for a short term emergency.

Bugging Out?

You can't read around the web on prepping too long before you come across the topic of "bug out bags".  This is an interesting sub-genre in that it quickly reveals the extreme paranoia on many prepping sites.  Here's one from The Art of Manliness that is not too extreme.

So the idea is to have an easy to carry bag that will get you through the first 72 hours.  Note that his is LOADED with a ton of stuff... most telling is all the weapons (including a gun) - and a Bible.  (I'm sorry... in my head, those two DON'T mix.)

I can't imagine a less safe scenario than in the local woods after some sort of "event".   I live in northern Delaware - that part of Delaware that looks like it was cut out of PA.  If you look on Google Earth, there are woods in my area, but they're all surrounded by suburbia.

All these arm-chair survivalists taking to the local woods with their knifes and guns, exhausted from carrying a 50lb pack and ready to take on anyone they think might be after their food and fighting over sipping through their filter straws from the local streams... it ain't gonna end well.

I've also learned that there are different ways to think about emergency "get out of town" or "get out of Dodge" (GOOD) kits.

The first is the "bug out kit" described on the page above.  These seem to be survivalist fantasy items - more as something to chat about at parties than really useful.  It might be useful to have in your car in certain circumstances, but much too heavy to carry any distance.

A second - sometimes called a "bug out kit" is more of a survivalist kit.  It's much lighter... for that time when you turn your back on society and take to the hills, and it contains the basic tools you'd need to start a solitary life in the woods somewhere much more remote than my area.  To me, this might be a more reasonable scenario, but it's not for me.  Yes, I used to enjoy the occasional camping trip.  But I don't want to camp for the rest of my life.

A third type is an Evacuation Kit... more of a tote, actually.  The idea here is that you gather some copies of key documents (home insurance, DL, passport, etc.), a couple changes of clothing, perhaps a day or two's worth of food and water, some toiletries and a simple first aid kit, etc., and keep it in a tote in your car.  At a recent lunch with a former colleague, she told me that they keep something like this at the ready - in fact, she knew her husband was serious about her when he offered to add some of her things to his kit - how romantic!

I think I'm leaning towards this last type of kit.

Seriously, a house fire, a wildfire, or some sort of huge industrial accident are the only likely scenarios where I think I'd need to abandon the home.  I doubt it's even possible for us to get flooded (except perhaps a plumbing emergency).  We're most likely "bugging out" to a neighbor's house or the nearest hotel - perhaps one that's 10 miles away in an extreme case.

Water

I'm told that you can only live 3 days without water.  Here in the USA we're used to turning a tap and getting surprisingly good quality water without thinking.  Of course, that's when our gov't or water authority does the thinking for us.  When I visit China, I can't drink the water there without getting sick (I'm not used to some of the microbes that remain in their water supply).  It reminds me of how blessed I have it here.

So FEMA says we should have a minimum of 2 weeks worth of water stored per occupant.  As I hinted earlier, I purchased some cases from Deer Park and that arrived today.  So here is my overall water emergency plan.

My goal is to double the FEMA 2 week guideline and have a 1 month supply if both of us are here.  I have 6 cases of 1.5L bottles, 4 cases of 700 ml bottles and while I thought I ordered 6 bottles of distilled water (useful around the house), I actually ordered 6 cases.  This is probably a 2-3 year supply of bottled water for events and boating and maybe a 5-6 year supply of distilled water.  The total is 82 gallons which covers us for a little more than a month in a bad scenario.

But there's more.  I have an extra potable water hose.  I'll rinse that with disinfectant solution and put it near my water heater (let's say 40 gal.) and now we have 82 gal. which will be enough to last us the  two weeks if we have a house full of guests (6 adults).

But there's more!  I have a couple of medium size bathtubs and a larger tub in the master bath. If we get even a little warning that water may be interrupted (and someone is home) we can fill the tubs to be able to flush the toilets and grab some water for cleaning, etc.

And even more!!!  I have a 20 gal fish tank and a 200 gal pond outside.  that water might not be potable, but with a filter straw or water filter...

(Screeching halt sound!!!)

OK, at that point, we're moving from "reasonable" to "unreasonable".  If things are getting to the point that I'm thinking about whether my water filter or filter straw is still in date so I can sip from the fish tank... it's time to think about evacuating and moving on.

So, the plan from now on is use this water on the boat, etc., and after we use a case or two, go get a case or two during the monthly booze runs to Costco.  It just means we have to remove the cases from the car rather than driving them right to the boat.  Assuming we can keep this up, water is reasonably solved for now.

Quick Prep

So... Goals being stated, I'd hate to find that after all this thinking, something happened soon and I was too busy putting together a plan rather than acting.  So last evening, I did a sort of "quick prep".

Water:

I found the Deer Park website that offered a nice discount ($50 off) for a first delivery and ordered 10 cases of bottled water in a couple of sizes that we have found usable on the boat, along with a small amount of distilled water (always useful around the house) and it will get delivered early next week.

We had previously purchased a case or two (~ 5 -10 gal) in getting the boat ready, and we usually go through a couple of cases in a boating season.  Once delivered and assuming one case will get sent right to the boat, we'll have...

57 Gal of water (near enough to FEMA's suggestion of 1 gal/day to cover 2 people for a month.

I'll talk more in another post about other potential sources of water I have available to me.

Food:

I decided to approach the food from end to start.  My plan states to start with just an extra week from the normal groceries, supplement with cans and other shelf stable items for mid-term and finish with a supply of freeze dried.  For my "quick prep", I looked into freeze dried food and purchased one each of the three "Just In Case" buckets from Mountain House (a brand I remembered from our camping days years ago).  That gives me a total of 40 pouches (I'll assume a pouch is a meal for one, but they could be shared in a pinch).

40 Pouches of Mountain House at 3 meals/day is 13.3 days of food for one person (or two if shared).

I chose the buckets because they should be easily transportable.  (If we need to grab and go, that will make it easier.)  I will expand on freeze dried food in a future post.

Comfort/Hygiene/First Aid:

We are fairly well equipped on small scale first aid (Band-Aids, Ibuprofen, tweezers, etc.), so I'm not too worried for the short term - we can always do better, but I have time to think.

My wife tells me I'm obsessed with toilet paper and of course that was the first thing I purchased in this category.  Since we were at Costco to get these items, I threw in extra cases of TP, Tissues and a few extra rolls of paper towels to get started.

Cost so far:

About $350 for the items mentioned above.  Could I get more/dollar if I tried?  Yes, of course, but as I say on my sailing blog... heartbeats (time) are more precious than money for me right now.

For this amount, I have a month supply of water (and with a few small purchases, water will be mostly solved for the prepping I intend to do - see a future post about that), a week or two worth of food, and I know I'll be able to wipe when needed.  (I'm referring to my nose - with the tissues... get your mind out of the gutter.)

In the coming days, I'll think more on these three categories and look ahead at next steps.

My Goals

With everything else said before this, here are my main "prepping" goals...

FEMA says each household should store 2 weeks of food and water along with basic emergency supplies.  Given the current situation, I'd feel more comfortable doubling that.

But given how my household size varies, I think a tiered approach is what I'm comfortable with.

So here they are.  My Goals.

1. Lay in 30 days of water for two people.  Have a reasonable plan if more people are with me.
2. Have a tiered plan for food...
• Buy ahead and eat what we normally would for a week or so
• Lay in some shelf stable items (e.g., cans) for a possible longer term
• Add in some really long term food for an even longer term
3. Have a reasonable amount of comfort/hygiene/first aid items available
4. Slowly consider other reasonable scenarios and expand/adapt.

A tiered food storage solution is kind of important as it allows me to shrug off the "Snowed in" scenario and avoid the lines, but also allows me to handle having a housefly of people for a short time or be more generous if it's just the two of us.

My Household... How many do I prep for?

This sounds simple, but in my case, it's not so simple.

I'm married to a wonderful woman who comes from China and works half her time in Asia as part of her job.  That means that last year...

For half the time, I was in the house alone

For half the time, there were two of us here.

But...

For one month (well, 5 weeks), her family was visiting and there were 6 or 7 adults in the home.

Do I prep for one?  Six?  Take the average of 2.33?

I'm thinking I base most of my guesswork on 2 people.  I'd hate to have to have the conversation of "honey, I wasn't expecting this would happen while you were home".  I'm not sure that would go well.  

Yes, there's a non-zero chance that adversity could fall us with a house full of guests.  But I think in that case, I'd scramble to find an alternate... maybe we send them home early, perhaps a long sight-seeing tour of the west coast if that proved to be an option, or something like that.  

(I remember a friend's youth group that was on the ground in Haiti when the earthquake hit.  They wanted to stay and help, but their hosts really wanted to get them to safety so he could concentrate on helping the locals... I guess would apply in my case as well.)

So... assume two people... plan for a larger possibility for a short time.

But there's more...

What if people I know and love come here for help during a time of adversity?  I'm not suggesting my goal is to feed multitudes in this, but I live in a cul-de-sac and happen to like my neighbors.  I couldn't sit around and be well-fed watching the children next door go hungry.  

So that's one reason we might want to lay in a little extra.  There are others.

FEMA says each household should keep 2 weeks worth of food and water on hand.  If every household did this, I wouldn't need to worry beyond my own household.  I know they don't (I have not until now).  

And... I also don't completely trust FEMA.  The present administration has clearly demonstrated to me that government CAN be incompetent.  I need to plan for that.  Don't get me wrong... our society (including the government) is filled with competent caring people, but I'd like to have enough to last me so I don't have to go to the SuperDome, but move to the secondary phase once things settle down.

Scenarios I Might be Prepping For...

So...

If I'm going to go about "Reasonable Prepping", then what is my aiming point?

Things that are likely to happen over things that are less likely... Superstorm Sandy rather than Zombie Apocalypse...

What are likely scenarios I might face living here in suburban Delaware? Here are some more likely scenarios I thought of.

• Getting snowed in
• Power outage after weather event
• Isolation during pandemic
• Loss of Income
• Contaminated water supply
• Loss of larger power grid

We've seen all of these here in the USA in the past years, and of course, they all have various intensity levels that could be applied to them.  Let's think briefly about each one.

Getting Snowed In

This sounds trivial at first glance, but how many times have we stood in lines at the grocery store with a bad storm approaching.  I remember this one time living in northern NJ, where I didn't stand in the line - the snowstorm was in March, why bother?  But it was a deep snow... I was driving a small car (Ford Festiva) and the plows for some reason never made it up to our area (they literally plowed to within about 5 or 6 houses from our home in all directions).  Kids were young, we were low on food at the time and we were sweating it out.  Now I usually stand in line, and if we're thinking about prepping, I'd like to not have to stand in line anymore.

Power Loss (affecting our home or a whole region)

This can range from a tree takes out our development to something larger that we experienced in Superstorm Sandy.  There, a significant part of the region was without power for at least a week, and some places weren't restored for 2 or 3 weeks.  Gas and Water will likely continue to flow in these cases, but you may have trouble buying or purchasing - especially if you require plastic.  A means to eat and drink without power is essential.  For me, I have gas burners that can be lit with a match in a pinch, and a grill outside.

Heat could be a complication.  My gas furnace requires electric to operate.  I do have a gas log fireplace that could serve in an emergency, but in my new house, it turns on with a wall switch... I'll need to check in to seeing if it can turn on manually as well.  For cooling, we have some finished space in our basement, so that should be tolerable.

I might consider a generator of some sorts, but the thought of having to stand in some gas lines like they did after Sandy just to keep a generator fed is not something I'd like to do.

Isolation During Pandemic

A lot of health oriented sites continue to warn that we as a society are overdue for a pandemic.  A big reason to prep would be to protect myself and loved ones so that we don't have to go out during the first few weeks while it is studied and procedures are put in place.  

A more significant risk is that since we are frequently out of the country, we return to find ourselves quarantined.  (For example, Vicky returns from China around the same time that a "Chinese Flu" comes across the sea and gets quarantined during the administrative panic.)  Coming back to a house that has nothing and not being allowed to leave immediately requires calling in a lot of favors... returning to a well stocked house might be better.  Our society did this sort of thing just a year or so ago to a few people possibly exposed to Ebola.

Loss of Income

Let's face it, this is something that could affect any of us.  The nice thing about this scenario, is that we'll assume the rest of society continues to function, but while reading about food storage on the Latter Day Saints website (LDS folks are strongly encouraged by their church to store a years supply of food), they had a few case histories where families that stored food and lost jobs, could eat through their stored food and reduce cash loss during the time of unemployment.  It's food for thought.

Contaminated Water Supply

We need water.  Period.  Yes, there are some filters, etc. we could use and our water heater stores some, but it's so easy to stash away a significant supply of drinking water that doing so is a no brainer.  We're close to some industry and there have been some real world examples of this being a need (e.g., Flint, MI).

So that's enough for now.  There clearly are some relatively realistic scenarios where the inability to get food, water, fuel, access to cash and some basic supplies could make life miserable.  My quest... for a reasonable budget (not penny pinching, but not spending extravagantly), can I lay in a few long term supplies as a sort of insurance against this?

Interesting thing on the internet: Prepping for Less Crazy Folk

Interesting article online...

Prepping for Less Crazy Folk

Axioms and Assumptions

I said I started a blogging spreadsheet.  One of the first questions was "What are the types of scenarios I'm preparing for?"

But before we get to that I couldn't seem to get the "typical" images of preppers out of my mind.  It seems like almost as much discussion is given over to how you intend to protect your preparedness, as to what to prepare for.

One page talks about protecting lines of attack, teaching your kids to shoot, and things like that.  

One question I have is what do you do with the dead bodies?  Do they just pile up?  Do you have to bury them?  A Christian burial or one of their faith (assuming you can figure THAT out)?  What if you shoot several people you believe are coming over for your food, but have dinner guests over that evening?  Do you have clean them up that same day, or (for example) if you're busy cooking dinner for your guests, is it OK to just have your guests step over them for that evening?

I don't get this I'll shoot someone idea.  Dealing with dead bodies isn't my skill set.  There's perhaps a reason my ex is still alive and well.

So early on in this prepping thought exercise, I came up with Three Axioms...

1.  I'm not willing to kill or harm a person who comes to me seeking food.  

See above... maybe it's my Christian history (feed the hungry, clothe the naked, etc.), but I just couldn't do that.  No need to lay in a bunch of weapons.

2.  I'm prepping for events more likely to happen rather than less likely to happen.

So... Superstorm Sandy, yes... Zombie Apocalypse, not so much.  What would I do if I have no guns and the Mutant Zombie Bikers (MZBs) came to visit?  I dunno, I have a motorcycle endorsement on my Drivers License from back when I rode a Vespa Scooter for a year or two, so I guess I could join them.  Right.

What about long term changes in society?  Well, I'm educated, I have some basic camping/scouting skills under my belt, I own a boat and can sail.  I think in this case, I'll learn/suffer with the rest.

3.  I'm willing to move on to other places if that seems prudent.

So if a long term war comes to Delaware, I'll drive the 3 min to Pennsylvania.  Yes, I'm being a smart ass... but here's the thing...  while I love my life right now, I love life even more.  If it becomes clear that society isn't going to be nice where I'm at, I'm willing to shelter in for a bit, but then it may be time to move on.  

A couple of examples... I kind of liked the place I grew up in central PA, but the economy tanked when the steel industry collapsed around the time I was getting out of college, and so I've never really went back except for short visits.  My ancestors did the same... things got bad over in Europe, they came over here.  So if the East Coast becomes unlivable for whatever reason, try the West, or maybe join my wife's family over in China.  The world has options... yes, I'm a patriot and love the USA, but...

Finally some Assumptions.

1. Large scale society continues to function at some level - even if government is incompetent.

2. Water might get interrupted for a period, but would probably be restored.

3. Natural gas will continue to flow except in earthquake situations

4. Water could get contaminated for a longer period but would be OK for washing, etc.

5. Shelter in place whenever possible, but

6. Have 3 to 5 day a "bug out" kit just in case.

So, for events like storms, remember Katrina.  I want to have stuff at home to avoid the Superdome, but may have to move on with buses to Texas.